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Polls missed bigger on the midterms than in 2016

Democrats' midterm tsunami obscured a major polling miss: Surveys correctly anticipated a blue wave, but failed to capture its full force. Why it matters: Pollsters appear to have underestimated Democrats by a wider margin than they underestimated Republicans in 2016 or 2024 — even if they got the headline outcome right this time. By the numbers: Democrats are on track to win the national House popular vote by roughly 13 points, compared with a final Silver Bulletin polling average of 8.9 point…

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AxiosCenter·1h ago
Polls missed bigger on the midterms than in 2016
Democrats' midterm tsunami obscured a major polling miss: Surveys correctly anticipated a blue wave, but failed to capture its full force. Why it matters: Pollsters appear to have underestimated Democrats by a wider margin than they underestimated Republicans in 2016 or 2024 — even if they got the headline outcome right this time. By the numbers: Democrats are on track to win the national House popular vote by roughly 13 points, compared with a final Silver Bulletin polling average of 8.9 point…
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Polls missed bigger on the midterms than in 2016

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